MEMO: Republican Vulnerabilities and Nan Whaley’s Strengths are Clear One Year Out from Election Day

To: Interested Parties
From: Courtney Rice, Nan Whaley for Governor Communications Director
Date: November 8, 2021
RE: Republican Vulnerabilities and Nan Whaley’s Strengths are Clear One Year Out from Election Day

In exactly one year, polls will open on Election Day in what will be one of the most competitive gubernatorial races in the country. Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley is uniquely positioned to win the Governor’s office thanks to a nasty Republican primary, the first such of a sitting Ohio Republican governor in generations; the ongoing and ever growing HB6 corruption scandal that continues to creep closer to Governor DeWine; Whaley’s strengths as a candidate from her historic fundraising haul to her diverse endorsements; and electoral shows of strength from Democrats in mayoral, city council, and school board races across Ohio in 2021.

Nan knows how difficult winning in Ohio can be, especially if the national political headwinds are blowing. What we’re seeing on the ground, though, are the first tremors of a political earthquake with the potential to shake up this race dramatically and put Nan in a position to win, no matter what happens in Washington, DC.

Republican Primary

Governor Mike DeWine is the first sitting Ohio Republican Governor to face a serious primary challenge since the 1930s. And it’s no wonder — former President Donald Trump has complained about DeWine every chance he gets and hinted in a tweet last year that he should face a primary challenge. Facing an expensive, competitive primary will force DeWine to tack to the right and appease his base, which Ohioans have already begun to witness over the last year. This isn’t theoretical — Jim Renacci’s first television ads aired yesterday during the Bengals — Browns game.

[OPINION] In reelection mode, DeWine panders to base, ignores will of most Ohioans
Ohio Capital Journal | Marylou Johanek

Analysis: What Is Mike DeWine Thinking?
WVXU | Howard Wilkinson

• It boggles the mind. How did Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine, in the space of little more than a year, go… to a toothless politician seemingly afraid of his own shadow as new cases of the coronavirus soar and the ICU beds of Ohio’s hospitals begin to fill once again?
• The answer is simple: because much of his political party — the Republican Party — turned on him.

Theodore Decker: As pandemic drags on, only a shadow remains of the Mike DeWine we knew
Columbus Dispatch | Theodore Decker

• Facing muzzles like this and being up for reelection in 2022, DeWine must have seen the threats of schoolyard bullies scrawled on the wall. He began to back down.
• You can almost see him eyeing the exits. In our ongoing time of need, we are left with our governor, once fearless in the face of an uncertain and unsettling future, now increasingly concerned with his own.

Commentary: What Is Mike DeWine So Scared Of?
WVXU | Howard Wilkinson

• Scared too, of former congressman Jim Renacci, an anti-mask Republican from Medina County, who is challenging DeWine for the 2022 gubernatorial nomination. Renacci has been in DeWine’s grill on a near-daily basis, saying the governor really wants a mask mandate in the schools.
• Between the anti-maskers in the legislature and their power, and the noise from the right threatening him in the 2022 GOP gubernatorial primary, DeWine is locked up, frozen, apparently afraid to act.

Gov. Mike DeWine, in re-election mode, visits Texas to meet National Guard troops, talk border security
Cleveland.com | Jeremy Pelzer

Furthermore, thanks to “increased Republican backlash against DeWine,” the Ohio Republican Party has so far refused to endorse DeWine for reelection, causing “internal strife.” At a recent meeting when an endorsement was brought up, chaos ensued. When the extreme Republicans running for U.S. Senate meet to debate, the loudest boos in the room often happen at the mention of DeWine’s name.

DeWine faces a conundrum: does he continue to tack to the far-right (which he’s already doing) and risk alienating any moderate or independent voters, or does he anger his base to the point where they stay home next November?

Independents and Moderates are Souring on DeWine

Conventional wisdom says that DeWine is popular among independents and moderate voters who view his actions on coronavirus as examples of him bucking his party. But that was over a year ago. Once Dr. Amy Acton was chased out of her job, with no support from DeWine, his actions on COVID-19 began to change and became distinctly more political. Now, DeWine is kowtowing to political pressure from his base and primary opponent Jim Renacci by refusing to institute a mask mandate in schools when the delta variant was surging and children across Ohio were getting sick at alarming rates.

Teachers union president calls on DeWine to mandate masks in schools
Ironton Tribune

Medina mother advocates for school masks in talk with gubernatorial candidate
Medina Gazette | Jonathan Delozier

And DeWine has activists, independents, and all Ohioans disappointed and angry over his dereliction of duty in voting for unconstitutional state legislative maps.

Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine fails to stand up to gerrymandering in proposed district maps: This Week in the CLE
Cleveland.com | This Week in the CLE podcast

In voting for admittedly flawed maps, DeWine and LaRose abrogated their duty to Ohioans
Cleveland.com | Editorial Board

The Largest Corruption Scandal in the Country is Still Unfolding Before Ohioans’ Eyes

In July 2020, the FBI arrested the GOP Speaker of the Ohio House and four Republican lobbyists in connection with $61 million in bribes received in exchange for providing FirstEnergy, a massive utility company, with a $1.1 billion ratepayer funded bailout. Since then, the FBI has called the scandal the largest in the country as it has gotten closer and closer to Gov. DeWine.

In recent months, FirstEnergy has entered into a plea deal in which the company admitted to the charges, and revealed that they paid a $4 million bribe to Sam Randazzo, DeWine’s handpicked utility regulator who was also raided by the FBI. Texts show that FirstEnergy executives worked closely with members of the DeWine Administration to install Randazzo (over the warnings of other Republicans) after providing millions to elect DeWine. Once appointed, they continued to coordinate with Randazzo, who was doing everything in his power to benefit FirstEnergy, not Ohioans.

The FBI has indicated that the investigation is ongoing. Randazzo has yet to be charged and the former GOP Speaker of the House has vowed to fight the allegation in court next year. All the while, DeWine continues to surround himself with FirstEnergy insiders.

This scandal isn’t going away — it’s only going to get worse for DeWine. The only question is, when will the next shoe drop?

Whaley’s Strengths as a Candidate

By announcing her candidacy more than a year and a half out from the election, Nan is positioning herself as the best candidate to take on Governor DeWine and win next November. Since announcing, Nan has received endorsements from more than 140 local elected officials and leaders across the state; the four big city mayors of Akron, Toledo, Cleveland, and Columbus; U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown; a half dozen major unions; NARAL Pro-Ohio; and national groups like EMILY’s List and 314 Action.

Enthusiasm for Nan’s campaign is apparent. In the only filing deadline since she announced, Nan raised an historic, record-breaking amount of $1.64 million, which is the most ever raised by a Democratic challenger for Ohio Governor in the first half of an off-year.

By entering the race early and raising historic amounts, Nan is able to take her campaign all across Ohio, including to communities and towns that often feel the state government doesn’t care about them. In August, Nan announced the Ohio Deserves Better 88 County Tour and she’s already traveled to 51 counties, bringing her vision of change all across the state.

Local Races Showcase Democratic Strength Across Ohio

Democrats are still winning local races in Ohio. Election Night 2021 was a rough night for Democrats in many states across the country, but not in Ohio. Democrats won every major Mayor’s race in the state, including in Lima, where Sharetta Smith became the first woman and first African American elected Mayor of her city, which Trump carried in 2020. Shontel Brown was easily elected to Congress; while Allison Russo ran a great race in an absurdly gerrymandered district, and did better in the district than Biden did in 2020, even as candidates elsewhere in the country underperformed his numbers. Common-sense voters also defeated dozens of extreme school board candidates all over the state. National conservatives, and political opportunists like Jane Timken, propped up candidates all over Ohio who went down in defeat in big cities, suburbs, and small towns, in blue-collar areas and white-collar ones, and in communities from Cincinnati to Boardman. It was a great night for public education in Ohio, and a great reminder that localized campaigns can win here.